Having listened now to about six hours of interview with and about al-Jolani conducted between 2015 to the present, my impressions are as follows:
* He is extremely charismatic, highly intelligent, and interested in long-term strategic hegemony
* He is sincere about shifting his focus from al-Qaeda-style global gihad to regional governance, institution-building
* Liberation of al-Aqsa and the Palestinian cause in general are of a lower order of priority
My assessment is that HTS under al-Jolani is engaging in a long-term hybrid military-political-comms strategy in which they rebuild and consolidate power over the course of 7-10 years before engaging in further offensive actions against the Zionist occupation. Meanwhile, they will likely engage in a charm campaign to win over the hearts and minds of southern Syrian minorities while collecting intelligence. When the time is right, and the Zionists are sufficiently lulled into complacency as is their nature, the campaign will begin.
We have plenty of time to prepare for this eventuality, so rest assured that our political and military leadership will squander the opportunity by conducting political witch-hunts and engaging in kangaroo trials until nobody is left to fight when the time comes. Buckle your seatbelt!
What I find interesting is if you listen to Julani it sounds like he's 100% been paying attention,consuming data, and making conclusions that are not fitting of the "dent head" stereotype you wield here.
He either has sophisticated support, or, they're much more dangerous and much less dent head than one might suppose. Both situations bode terrible in the long run if not kept in check.
One of your main points, I agree, Israel should take the entire Hauran region. Apropos, but quite important to note, this land (formerly Bashan of Amorites) belongs to Jews, as stipulated in Joshua 13:11-31.
"In reality, no conceivable borders drawn on a two dimensional map could fix the main problem of the region: the fact that it’s full of sadistic, violent retards with dents in their foreheads, mushy frontal lobes and a complete lack of receptiveness to techniques of governance beyond those of the Assyrian Empire"
Superb. Its a relief to read something on Syria that goes beyond cliches. Your insight on HTS leveraging European and American support is spot on.
For the first time since WW1 Muslims control Damascus. This marks a major development in the recession of Western power in the region. Washington, London, Brussels and Paris will be desperate to woo HTS. Relations with Damascus will also figure in deliberations over domestic government too, now that the ummah has entrenched itself as a key client of the Western political classes.
The Syrian Ba'ath were the last fascist party from the mid 20th c to survive in power. Their ouster reveals the utter bankruptcy of the angry Arab Westernisers who larped as anti-colonialists. For this reason alone the West will double down on the staple fantasies that have thrilled people since Colonel Lawrence pulled off the greatest PR stunt in recorded history. The truth would be way to terrible to contemplate.
3. True in practice, but it's still required to nominally acknowledge the fiction their states, even when acting based on the reality these are failed states.
2. Agreed, but again there are smart and dumb ways to do this.
1. This is retarded. Begin, Shamir, Sharon, Bibi--they all didn't do annexation and transfer because deep down their shitlibs? It's true there's a delta between how world talks about Israel, how media and int'l orgs treat it versus the reality of economic and military relations, and Israel is generally most rewarded by being strong and daring, whatever even our "friends" suggest. But yes, Israel could get Rhodesia'd if it plays its cards wrong.
International norms may be changing as post WWII order seems weaker, but we're not all the way there yet.
Begin annexed the Golan, which had been ethnically cleansed. If not for Dayan and his corrupt stupidity, the Arabs of Yehuda and the Shomron would also have fled in 1948.
America needs allies in the Levant. Whom do they have aside from us? Economic basket case Jordan? Dysfunctional Lebanon? Whereas Rhodesia was strategically unimportant and produced nothing America needed (its agricultural exports benefitted America not at all and it was expedient to replace them with American aid.)
1. Required by the Europeans and possibly Americans who have proven they will sanction states that explicitly try to change borders of states through war. State on state war with intention of redrawing established borders is the one thing the Europeans, and possibly Americans, will punish with sanctions and possibly arms embargo. They view that as upsetting "world order" and it triggers global action without much controversy. It triggered Gulf War I against Saddam, and it triggered the current Russia sanctions. I don't think Europeans ended their economic ties with Russia and have started upping their defense spending because they wanted to re-enter great power politics and weaken a rival. I think they genuinely believe in preserving borders no matter how stupid or fictional they are, and messing with them triggers economic actions and intl law actions that have bite.
2. Indeed you're right about the Golan. And perhaps something similar could be done with a narrow strip in southern Lebanon. But it's worth noting how much overlap there is between left and right Israeli governments with respect to Golan and Palestinians. All Israeli govs for 40+ years, except for brief period under Barak, have upheld "Golan is Israel" and not allowed Syrians back. And no Israeli gov-not Begin, Shamir, Bibi, Sharon, Bibi again, Bennett, Bibi one more time--has found it possible to annex territory in Judea, Samaria, or Gaza, or engage in transfer at any scale. I don't see any evidence that's motivated solely or even primarily by internal class warfare considerations.
Europeans have no sovereign foreign policy and can't even set their own energy policy independently. They are, for all intents and purposes, an American satellite.
Once Begin annexed the Golan, whose Arabs had been ethnically cleansed, that set a new equilibrium. That's all. It's not magic.
I’ve already register a new non profit to end the oppressive and illegal Israeli occupation of Syria
I am still procrastinating on registering an NGO to support LGBTQ+ Hilltop Youth. Siphon off that sweet New Israel Fund cash!
Having listened now to about six hours of interview with and about al-Jolani conducted between 2015 to the present, my impressions are as follows:
* He is extremely charismatic, highly intelligent, and interested in long-term strategic hegemony
* He is sincere about shifting his focus from al-Qaeda-style global gihad to regional governance, institution-building
* Liberation of al-Aqsa and the Palestinian cause in general are of a lower order of priority
My assessment is that HTS under al-Jolani is engaging in a long-term hybrid military-political-comms strategy in which they rebuild and consolidate power over the course of 7-10 years before engaging in further offensive actions against the Zionist occupation. Meanwhile, they will likely engage in a charm campaign to win over the hearts and minds of southern Syrian minorities while collecting intelligence. When the time is right, and the Zionists are sufficiently lulled into complacency as is their nature, the campaign will begin.
We have plenty of time to prepare for this eventuality, so rest assured that our political and military leadership will squander the opportunity by conducting political witch-hunts and engaging in kangaroo trials until nobody is left to fight when the time comes. Buckle your seatbelt!
What I find interesting is if you listen to Julani it sounds like he's 100% been paying attention,consuming data, and making conclusions that are not fitting of the "dent head" stereotype you wield here.
He either has sophisticated support, or, they're much more dangerous and much less dent head than one might suppose. Both situations bode terrible in the long run if not kept in check.
Writing on point as always
Some Syrian Druze are already loudly asking Israel to accept them as citizens. https://x.com/COzdmer22623/status/1867546938889187773
One of your main points, I agree, Israel should take the entire Hauran region. Apropos, but quite important to note, this land (formerly Bashan of Amorites) belongs to Jews, as stipulated in Joshua 13:11-31.
From your mouth to Netanyahu's ears insha'Allah
Absolute 💎💎💎 btw
"In reality, no conceivable borders drawn on a two dimensional map could fix the main problem of the region: the fact that it’s full of sadistic, violent retards with dents in their foreheads, mushy frontal lobes and a complete lack of receptiveness to techniques of governance beyond those of the Assyrian Empire"
Superb. Its a relief to read something on Syria that goes beyond cliches. Your insight on HTS leveraging European and American support is spot on.
For the first time since WW1 Muslims control Damascus. This marks a major development in the recession of Western power in the region. Washington, London, Brussels and Paris will be desperate to woo HTS. Relations with Damascus will also figure in deliberations over domestic government too, now that the ummah has entrenched itself as a key client of the Western political classes.
The Syrian Ba'ath were the last fascist party from the mid 20th c to survive in power. Their ouster reveals the utter bankruptcy of the angry Arab Westernisers who larped as anti-colonialists. For this reason alone the West will double down on the staple fantasies that have thrilled people since Colonel Lawrence pulled off the greatest PR stunt in recorded history. The truth would be way to terrible to contemplate.
Can we found new settlements yet? I would go there.
They're constantly being founded.
In the area israel recently took?
No, not yet
How do you do all this without worldwide arms embargo and sanctions collapsing the economy, and many of the most capable people leaving the country?
All that shit is fake.
Did Turkey get hit with an arms embargo and sanctions? Did Saudi and the UAE for Yemen?
We just pushed 2 million Gazan Arabs and a million Lebanese Arabs out of their homes and into refugee camps. Where are the arms embargo and sanctions?
Stop parroting dumb stuff, it's all a big bluff leveraged for internal Israeli class warfare purposes.
1. Israel's held to different standard than everyone else. This war has made that clear.
2. Those population movements appear to everyone temporary, change no borders, and have not been followed by Israeli settlement.
3. The world acts differently when you try to acquire land of another state by force. See Russia invasion of Europe.
1. Israel is held to different standards because it allows itself to be, in service to internal class warfare.
2. As the Israeli saying goes, nothing is more permanent than the temporary.
3. There is no "other state" here, Syria is in chaos and Southern Lebanon belongs to Hezbollah.
The World is the United States, which is leaving “the world” to its own devices, as we 🇺🇸 are being consumed by our devices and artifices.
In reverse order:
3. True in practice, but it's still required to nominally acknowledge the fiction their states, even when acting based on the reality these are failed states.
2. Agreed, but again there are smart and dumb ways to do this.
1. This is retarded. Begin, Shamir, Sharon, Bibi--they all didn't do annexation and transfer because deep down their shitlibs? It's true there's a delta between how world talks about Israel, how media and int'l orgs treat it versus the reality of economic and military relations, and Israel is generally most rewarded by being strong and daring, whatever even our "friends" suggest. But yes, Israel could get Rhodesia'd if it plays its cards wrong.
International norms may be changing as post WWII order seems weaker, but we're not all the way there yet.
Required by whom?
Begin annexed the Golan, which had been ethnically cleansed. If not for Dayan and his corrupt stupidity, the Arabs of Yehuda and the Shomron would also have fled in 1948.
America needs allies in the Levant. Whom do they have aside from us? Economic basket case Jordan? Dysfunctional Lebanon? Whereas Rhodesia was strategically unimportant and produced nothing America needed (its agricultural exports benefitted America not at all and it was expedient to replace them with American aid.)
1. Required by the Europeans and possibly Americans who have proven they will sanction states that explicitly try to change borders of states through war. State on state war with intention of redrawing established borders is the one thing the Europeans, and possibly Americans, will punish with sanctions and possibly arms embargo. They view that as upsetting "world order" and it triggers global action without much controversy. It triggered Gulf War I against Saddam, and it triggered the current Russia sanctions. I don't think Europeans ended their economic ties with Russia and have started upping their defense spending because they wanted to re-enter great power politics and weaken a rival. I think they genuinely believe in preserving borders no matter how stupid or fictional they are, and messing with them triggers economic actions and intl law actions that have bite.
2. Indeed you're right about the Golan. And perhaps something similar could be done with a narrow strip in southern Lebanon. But it's worth noting how much overlap there is between left and right Israeli governments with respect to Golan and Palestinians. All Israeli govs for 40+ years, except for brief period under Barak, have upheld "Golan is Israel" and not allowed Syrians back. And no Israeli gov-not Begin, Shamir, Bibi, Sharon, Bibi again, Bennett, Bibi one more time--has found it possible to annex territory in Judea, Samaria, or Gaza, or engage in transfer at any scale. I don't see any evidence that's motivated solely or even primarily by internal class warfare considerations.
Europeans have no sovereign foreign policy and can't even set their own energy policy independently. They are, for all intents and purposes, an American satellite.
Once Begin annexed the Golan, whose Arabs had been ethnically cleansed, that set a new equilibrium. That's all. It's not magic.
*Ukraine, not Europe