The significant reduction of teen pregnancy in the West and its drastic decline in Latin America and Asia impacts total fertility rates. As women are now having children later—by 5 to 10 years—the distribution of childbirth ages shifts. Age of childbirth for women follows normal distribution. Stopping teen pregnancy shifts the entire distribution. But women's fertility is not evenly spread over their reproductive years. It's increasingly difficult to conceive in their mid to late 30s and nearly impossible in their 40s without expensive medical assistance. The shifted distribution means more women trying to get pregnant later in life with a lower likelihood of success.
I think clearly the Jews are an outlier in the tfr discussion. One of the highest predictors of a women having a child is if she already had a child. Starting early makes that second and third more likely. Women starting later have a smaller window to make that happen. Clearly it’s not the only answer, nor am I saying we want a bunch of knocked up 15 year olds. But it’s just a statistical artifact of the distribution. You can see the effect in the data https://www.bgsu.edu/ncfmr/resources/data/family-profiles/schweizer-guzzo-distribution-age-first-birth-fp-20-11.html
It would be hard to find a man more religious than Joshua Lawrence Chamberlin during our civil war and he was the definition of one of the cool kids. Anyone who saves the republic with a bayonet charge is automatically cool. We don't do religion like that anymore nor do we find 18 year olds who will learn Greek and Latin just to gain access to source religious documents. We live on the shoulder of giants.
Very random crossover
The significant reduction of teen pregnancy in the West and its drastic decline in Latin America and Asia impacts total fertility rates. As women are now having children later—by 5 to 10 years—the distribution of childbirth ages shifts. Age of childbirth for women follows normal distribution. Stopping teen pregnancy shifts the entire distribution. But women's fertility is not evenly spread over their reproductive years. It's increasingly difficult to conceive in their mid to late 30s and nearly impossible in their 40s without expensive medical assistance. The shifted distribution means more women trying to get pregnant later in life with a lower likelihood of success.
Dunno. Sub-19 pregnancy is rare among the Haredim, very rare among religious Zionists, yet families with 5 children or more are very common.
I think clearly the Jews are an outlier in the tfr discussion. One of the highest predictors of a women having a child is if she already had a child. Starting early makes that second and third more likely. Women starting later have a smaller window to make that happen. Clearly it’s not the only answer, nor am I saying we want a bunch of knocked up 15 year olds. But it’s just a statistical artifact of the distribution. You can see the effect in the data https://www.bgsu.edu/ncfmr/resources/data/family-profiles/schweizer-guzzo-distribution-age-first-birth-fp-20-11.html
Puritans married later and still had lots of kids.
It would be hard to find a man more religious than Joshua Lawrence Chamberlin during our civil war and he was the definition of one of the cool kids. Anyone who saves the republic with a bayonet charge is automatically cool. We don't do religion like that anymore nor do we find 18 year olds who will learn Greek and Latin just to gain access to source religious documents. We live on the shoulder of giants.