Great conversation, his views on Roman Jewish life are particularly fascinating.
Unfortunately, he’s living in a fantasy when it comes to his solution for the regional war in Gaza and the North.
To blame low rates of western Jewish immigration on populous Haredi urban centers is laughable. I can’t even imagine a Haaretz article capable of expressing that view
Love every time I see luttwak. I also hope you know that he gave you those 2 hours as his blessing. In case you missed it the last 5 minutes was him nudging you to enter politics (which I agree with). You have the same values demeanor and mind set of the right without the absolute retardation of Ben Gvir and Smotrich (which you yourself have clowned on multiple times).
Agreeing with other comments, his overconfidence on clearly quantifiable points is reason for skepticism of his other points. Specifically, his criticism of Israel not having a minimum number of parliamentary seats when Israel does in fact have a minimum, and his ability to continue in stride with "OK, fine, very good, of course" when told that the "1 or 2 man party" that should be excluded actually holds 14 seats. Not only was the quantifiable fact (‘no minimum’ wrong) the message became quite questionable, as well. Is it really trivial to exclude extremist parties when such parties constitute such a significant share of the electorate?
Additionally, his point about not living in a country without participating in its military was presented purely dogmatically, not even as specific to the special case of Israel. Sure, he practices what he preaches, and comes from a military family, but the general point is obviously silly. In most Western countries, the greatest contribution to state welfare comes from the dynamism of the upper-class, which innovates, creates jobs, and pays taxes, and doesn't generally serve in the military.
The case could be made that certain classes of people are net negatives on society, largely considering economic output and benefits consumption, and indeed, that Charedim constitute such a group, but he made no reference to that, settling instead for pure dogma, driven by an apparent zero-sum picture of the world (“living on our land, breathing our air”). Were he to follow that avenue, he could have, of course, considered whether greater military integration of Charedim would promote or undermine economic integration efforts, but he avoided that entirely with his dogmatism.
This is ironic, given his initial insistence that Israel is no position to settle for pretty platitudes (like “patriots have to be cool” an actual quote from him), and must reckon with often unpleasant pragmatic realities.
It's also ironic that he insists that the army is so essential a component of the Jewish people, not only for military objectives, but as a tool for assimilation, while dismissing Charedi concerns of the army being inherently anti-religious. Obviously, his idea of the assimilatory role of the army is essentially equivalent to a Charedi conception of anti-religion. In fact, it's pretty clearly anti-religious even from a Religious Zionist perspective. The latter would simply acknowledge it as a necessary cost to be mitigated.
He also implies that the reason for waning international support for Israel is personal opposition to Netanyahu and to far-right parties in Israel. It seems dubious that those are actually the primary driving factors. Rather, international support in democracies seems to largely mirror public sentiment, which is mostly ignorant of the particulars of foreign internal political affairs.
Several factors are probably more significant, such as backlash from the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan against “foreign intervention and war in the Middle East,” a decreased tolerance for war between parties of vastly different strength, a waning memory of the Holocaust, with the attendant sympathy towards Jews as victims, and an increased constituency of Arabs and Muslims in Western countries.
"Those who refuse to serve in the army should be forced to immigrate" is one of the most dillusional takes I've ever heard. The GOI is more likely to expell or the Arabs than do anything like this. How can this person can be taking seriously.
In truth, though, its the hilonim that defile the land are the ones needed to be expelled. (ויקרא יח כח)
Interesting conversation. I would call his school of thought “intelligent current-statism.” Any idea how he feels about plans to relocate the Arabs? And if not, according to him, what is Israel supposed to do with them?
He said the Ottoman Empire went poof, the British Empire went poof, the USSR went poof. You should have asked him - for this is a critical question for Israeli strategy - what happens when the American empire goes poof. Among other things that will mean that the ordinary boring things (like 155 rounds) that he thinks Israel doesn’t need to make because it can always just buy them might not be available in time of great need.
Brah you ask him won’t the Air Force and Intelligence return to prior behavior if there’s a cease fire? Answer; more infantry.
IF The behavior of certain politicized elements in the before 10/7 time was politically motivated, THEN unless the political motive has gone away - the behavior returns.
Perhaps remember he comes from a different world that is dying, that he isn’t a citizen that settled there, that he’s a Pentagon Contractor.
The policy of the United States Foreign Policy Community is
ALWAYS to betray anyone fighting including our own military as the Diplomats have no cards of their own to play on the world table. There’s also -and this is vital to understand - there’s a natural tension between the elected and unelected and every defeat since 1945 has checked the elected.
The various wars won on the battlefield are invariably betrayed at table because it suits Foggy Bottom.
Interesting interview, but don't agree with him on everything. He is a little too self assured.
Great conversation, his views on Roman Jewish life are particularly fascinating.
Unfortunately, he’s living in a fantasy when it comes to his solution for the regional war in Gaza and the North.
To blame low rates of western Jewish immigration on populous Haredi urban centers is laughable. I can’t even imagine a Haaretz article capable of expressing that view
Love every time I see luttwak. I also hope you know that he gave you those 2 hours as his blessing. In case you missed it the last 5 minutes was him nudging you to enter politics (which I agree with). You have the same values demeanor and mind set of the right without the absolute retardation of Ben Gvir and Smotrich (which you yourself have clowned on multiple times).
Agreeing with other comments, his overconfidence on clearly quantifiable points is reason for skepticism of his other points. Specifically, his criticism of Israel not having a minimum number of parliamentary seats when Israel does in fact have a minimum, and his ability to continue in stride with "OK, fine, very good, of course" when told that the "1 or 2 man party" that should be excluded actually holds 14 seats. Not only was the quantifiable fact (‘no minimum’ wrong) the message became quite questionable, as well. Is it really trivial to exclude extremist parties when such parties constitute such a significant share of the electorate?
Additionally, his point about not living in a country without participating in its military was presented purely dogmatically, not even as specific to the special case of Israel. Sure, he practices what he preaches, and comes from a military family, but the general point is obviously silly. In most Western countries, the greatest contribution to state welfare comes from the dynamism of the upper-class, which innovates, creates jobs, and pays taxes, and doesn't generally serve in the military.
The case could be made that certain classes of people are net negatives on society, largely considering economic output and benefits consumption, and indeed, that Charedim constitute such a group, but he made no reference to that, settling instead for pure dogma, driven by an apparent zero-sum picture of the world (“living on our land, breathing our air”). Were he to follow that avenue, he could have, of course, considered whether greater military integration of Charedim would promote or undermine economic integration efforts, but he avoided that entirely with his dogmatism.
This is ironic, given his initial insistence that Israel is no position to settle for pretty platitudes (like “patriots have to be cool” an actual quote from him), and must reckon with often unpleasant pragmatic realities.
It's also ironic that he insists that the army is so essential a component of the Jewish people, not only for military objectives, but as a tool for assimilation, while dismissing Charedi concerns of the army being inherently anti-religious. Obviously, his idea of the assimilatory role of the army is essentially equivalent to a Charedi conception of anti-religion. In fact, it's pretty clearly anti-religious even from a Religious Zionist perspective. The latter would simply acknowledge it as a necessary cost to be mitigated.
He also implies that the reason for waning international support for Israel is personal opposition to Netanyahu and to far-right parties in Israel. It seems dubious that those are actually the primary driving factors. Rather, international support in democracies seems to largely mirror public sentiment, which is mostly ignorant of the particulars of foreign internal political affairs.
Several factors are probably more significant, such as backlash from the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan against “foreign intervention and war in the Middle East,” a decreased tolerance for war between parties of vastly different strength, a waning memory of the Holocaust, with the attendant sympathy towards Jews as victims, and an increased constituency of Arabs and Muslims in Western countries.
"Those who refuse to serve in the army should be forced to immigrate" is one of the most dillusional takes I've ever heard. The GOI is more likely to expell or the Arabs than do anything like this. How can this person can be taking seriously.
In truth, though, its the hilonim that defile the land are the ones needed to be expelled. (ויקרא יח כח)
Dr. Luttwak is presumably echoing the sentiments of his retired IDF general friends.
Bravo Baruch, much more agreed with you on many points…
Not to be naive and keep give up lands for peace was not so successful policies…as we can see now…
Not to mention current not naive leaders that keep destroying the country by being completely immoral
Interesting conversation. I would call his school of thought “intelligent current-statism.” Any idea how he feels about plans to relocate the Arabs? And if not, according to him, what is Israel supposed to do with them?
Bought the new book
Best conversation I've ever seen with Luttwak, incredible stuff.
He said the Ottoman Empire went poof, the British Empire went poof, the USSR went poof. You should have asked him - for this is a critical question for Israeli strategy - what happens when the American empire goes poof. Among other things that will mean that the ordinary boring things (like 155 rounds) that he thinks Israel doesn’t need to make because it can always just buy them might not be available in time of great need.
Brah you ask him won’t the Air Force and Intelligence return to prior behavior if there’s a cease fire? Answer; more infantry.
IF The behavior of certain politicized elements in the before 10/7 time was politically motivated, THEN unless the political motive has gone away - the behavior returns.
Baruch lol what MOS?
I am following your questioning 🤨
If Israelis want to understand their situation and intended fate;
1)Take the text.
2) Replace (Ctrl+H) Israel with South Vietnam, Bibi replace with Diem.
3) see results.
Really it is formulaic.
The same was done to Rhodesia, South Africa etc.
Perhaps remember he comes from a different world that is dying, that he isn’t a citizen that settled there, that he’s a Pentagon Contractor.
The policy of the United States Foreign Policy Community is
ALWAYS to betray anyone fighting including our own military as the Diplomats have no cards of their own to play on the world table. There’s also -and this is vital to understand - there’s a natural tension between the elected and unelected and every defeat since 1945 has checked the elected.
The various wars won on the battlefield are invariably betrayed at table because it suits Foggy Bottom.