On Syria, Part 2

An updated analysis and forecast

Four months ago, in December 2024, Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) overran Syria, to Western praise. Its head Ahmed Al Sharaa AKA Abu Mohammad Al Jolani, had been an Al Qaeda terrorist, but had reformed, embraced tolerance, pluralism and diversity, and was now a welcome addition to the international Rules-Based Order. Various USAID subsidiaries and the mockingbird press sang the praises of the new regime-did you know that in Idlib, run by HTS, you could get a digital driver’s license in 30 minutes? Forget DOGE, the Department of Government Jihad Efficiency applied indigenous Middle Eastern ways of management to streamline government processes while ensuring maximal diversity, and so on and so forth.

“I, for one, welcome our new jihadist client state!”

I wrote an analysis and forecast of Syria’s prospects and the ideal course of action for Israel (below). Let’s see how it’s held up and update as necessary.

1. “The future of Syria is either more brutal civil war or a brutal tyranny.” Correct so far. Last week, groups of Sunni jihadists with varying degrees of connection to the regime attacked the Alawites, allegedly in response to attacks on regime forces by Alawite insurgents. The response took the characteristic form of massacres, robbery and looting. The jihadists took videos of their work and uploaded them online.

   

   There’s a city in Syria named Banias. It was half Sunni, half Alawite-now it’s half Sunni, half dead.

   Al Jolani issued condemnations and promised investigations of the massacres. More likely than not, this is a play to continue lobbying to gain Western support and the lifting of sanctions; a few inbred patsies will be locked up or executed while sporadic ethnic cleansing continues.

   

   Clearly, these bashibuzuks were just rogue criminals

   If Al Jolani seriously decides to crack down on Sunni jihadists treating Alawites, Shia, Druze etc in the traditional fashion (Sunni Islam does not consider them Muslims or even Ahl Al Kitab, People of the Book, and therefore they can only be converted or killed in a proper Muslim state,) he will face lots of pushback and disobedience, which he will have to crush.

2. The various backers of the belligerent parties are…in murky positions. The Sunni powers in the region, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are all maneuvering for influence with the new regime. Al Jolani is allowing them all to court him, but seems to be leaning towards the Saudi-UAE axis. Had Kamala Harris been elected president, it seems fairly clear that the US would have joined in in supporting his regime: after all, Syria is finally ruled by the “moderate jihadists” imagined by State, CIA and USAID when they launched their Arab Spring project 13 years ago. With the Trump administration dismantling the American Deep State and its overseas influence networks, and with the deep distrust of jihadists shared by Trump’s inner circle, overt American support is unlikely.

   
   One imaginable exception is Trump making one of his trademark deals; this would likely involve a Syrian pipeline from the Persian Gulf to Europe and come in the context of a peace deal with Russia in the Ukraine. Since Russia stands to lose the most from a competing pipeline, it would have to be compensated with territorial and economic concessions in the Ukraine. Israel’s interests would also have to be addressed. If anyone could make this happen, it’s Trump-”only Nixon could go to China.” This scenario is contingent on the new Syrian regime successfully putting its Sunni jihadists in line as discussed above; one can assume that they did not come to Syria and fight for a decade in order for a pipeline to be built between the corrupt Gulf Arabs and the European kafirun, and that they will not accept this new goal without some very heavy convincing.

3. In Syria, a security buffer consisting of the Hauran region should be established and have Jewish settlements built as soon as possible, with the residents organized and equipped to provide their own security…The Druze and Christians in Syria and Lebanon should be offered protection, weapons and combat support, as well as access to Israeli markets and institutions as appropriate…Once a security belt across South Syria and Lebanon has been established, and strategic depth secured, we can deal with the new Syrian regime for as long as it lasts. Uncharacteristically, the government of Israel (GOI) is missing its opportunity to miss this opportunity. I have family members who are in miluim in Southern Syria; they tell me that IDF positions are being consolidated, that they are making agreements with the Druze villages in the area, and that the IDF responds harshly to any hostility and aggression from Sunni villages. Israel is working on integrating the South Syrian Druze into the Israeli economy and projecting ground power into Syria as far as the southern suburbs of Damascus.
   
   Hopefully, the GOI continues to develop the situation politically. The Muslim residents of the Southern Syria buffer zone should be given the opportunity and encouragement to emigrate, with generous financial compensation. Future goals should include the encouragement of Palestinians from Gaza, Judea and Samaria to join the new Syrian state and improve it with their professional skills. After all, a new moderate jihadist technocratic state should have plenty of opportunities for the “world’s best educated refugees” to apply their talents in constructive ways.

   

   See? Not all of that USAID money was wasted!

   In parallel, to ensure that the next leftist Israeli government has a hard time abandoning this one’s gains, a voluntary Jewish settlement program should be started. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis currently in debt slavery in the crowded and squalid tenements of Gush Dan, Afula, Tiberias, Dimona and others would surely welcome the opportunity to develop sustainable homestead communities in the healthy mountainous climate of Southern Syria; they could be encouraged with financing on lenient terms. The able bodied men could serve in a territorial defense organization, armed with the best modern small unit weapons and technology available and paid at miluim rates indefinitely for providing a security zone for the residents of Northern Israel at a low cost.
   
   The Trump administration’s eagerness for redrawing the geopolitical landscape also represents an opportunity not to be missed. Israeli acquiescence to the pipeline deal would require guarantees not subject to easy retraction by future American administrations. The best such guarantee would be political cover for creating new facts on the ground in the form of an Israeli-controlled and -settled buffer zone, created with formal American recognition and approval. This would be a favorable contrast to prior American-backed deals, the most prominent example being the Camp David Accords, whose outcome is a massive Egyptian military, armed with excellent American equipment and coldly hostile towards Israel, occupying a remilitarized Sinai.
   
   Israel should develop the situation with the goal that, should the new Syrian regime transition to either a hostile tyranny or anarchic civil war, it will at the very least not be threatened, and ideally be positioned to take advantage of developments to improve its situation. In the Middle East, chaos and war are always right around the corner; it would be wise to make arrangements to minimize our downside and maximize our upside.